The Figure shows the DYS 390,391
system for haplotypes extracted from the YHRD 15,000 haplotype
database for Europe. DYS392 = 13 was used as R1b
criterion. In each box is given the repeats for 390,391
and the population in parenthesis.
If these results represented only
a single modal haplotype at 24,11 (the Atlantic Modal
Haplotype) which had come into existence in the past and had
been accumulating mutations in 390 and 391 since its founding,
the fall off in population would tend to be more symmetric
than seen. One of the first things to note is that 390
mutates faster than 391, in any case. There is excess
population at 23/11 and 24/10 beyond what one would expect by
one-step mutations from the AMH. If independent modal
haplotypes came into existence at 23/11 and 24/10 at their
individual times in the past, and we superimpose these
populations with their mutations in 390 and 391 which have
accumulated since their founding, then the asymmetric
distribution of populations can be understood significantly
better. But there is still an apparent excess population
at 23/10 beyond what one would expect from one-step mutations
from the two new modal haplotypes at 23/11 and 24/10. So
an even smaller population of descendants of a modal haplotype
23/10 completes the picture.
The numbers in the Figure are
Total Europe. Although I see the evidence I have
explained above for the need for a hierarchy of four modal
haplotype descendant populations, that by itself would not be
that useful, and perhaps not that convincing to some.
But the YHRD database is divided up into about 100 regional
databases spread throughout Europe. One can find the
populations of these four modal haplotypes by region and
determine if the geographical distributions differ by modal
haplotype population? If they do in a clear measured
way, this is strong confirmation that we are seeing in
today's product of haplotype distribution the results of four
populations of peoples who have to some degree spread out and
migrated in Europe differently.
Very briefly, some of the
highlights of geographic patterns seen are:
24/11 (ATM) is very high
population with the Basques and surrounding Iberian areas and
then up the Atlantic coast to France and Britain; well-present
along the Rhine and into southern Germany.
23/11 is highest in "Greater
Frisia" (Brussels, Holland, NW Germany, Denmark); solid
throughout Germany and falls off back in Iberia
24/10 is elevated back in Iberia
but not like 24/11; it hardly gets to Norway/Sweden.
23/10 is present most strongly
toward SE Germany; it also hardly got to Norway/Sweden.
Detailed geographic tabulations
for these modal haplotype populations are posted to the List.
Note: The 809 haplotypes of
the 23/11 variety surely include many one-step mutations
of haplotypes which are descendants of the 24/11 founder,
and vice-versa. Similarly, some fraction of the 23/10
haplotypes are not descendants of the hypothesized founder of
that modal haplotype, but they are instead one-step
mutations of originally 24/10 haplotypes, and vice-versa.
The population flow up and down the boxes due to single-step
mutations at DYS 391 is significantly less due to the
evidently lower mutation rate of this marker. But
from the overall pattern of populations in the Figure, one
makes more sense of this pattern by adding the four sources of
founding modal haplotypes with their separate growths of
descendant populations.
Look at the one-step mutational
exchange between 23/11 and 24/11. If we want to
understand the ratio of descendants of the modal haplotype
founders, then mutations between the (larger) 24/11 population
into the (smaller) 23/11 population will tend to enlarge the
23/11 population and diminish the 24/11 population --- unless
there is substantial difference in "up" versus
"down" mutational rates. These corrections can
be done. Also, populations like 25/11 and 25/10 can be
assumed to be one-step mutated variations of the 24/11 and
24/10 descendant populations, respectively. These
corrections can also be made for purposes of improving the
geographical statistics and better determining the sub-clade
populations. What do I mean by "true sub-clade
populations"? Unique SNP mutation tags will
probably be found eventually for each of these identified
modal haplotype descendant populations; they will then become
haplogroup sub-clades or sub-sub-clades .... of R1b.
One might ask, "why don't you
go on to assume another very small sized modal haplotype 25/11
to "explain" the 319 found haplotypes"?
First reason for not doing so is that 319 does not seem to be
too unusual a number of mutations from the large 24/11
population; and secondly, there would simply not be the
statistical power from the geographically divided database to
check whether this additional hypothesized modal haplotype had
its own unique geographical distribution in Europe.
My purpose for doing this kind of
study is not to give every R1b haplotype another label, but to
try to understand the pre-historic history of the spread of
peoples in Europe. The "history" will be
written in the haplotype and haplogroup distributions.
For purposes of the haplotypes of individual people, this
structure may tilt the odds as to the deep origins of their
haplotype.